Bitcoin struggles in Q4 2024 as declining institutional interest and weaker performance raise concerns about its price recovery before year-end. Bitcoin erased gains during the second week of December, falling 12% from its peak of $108,353. Crypto traders wonder if the market will experience a “Santa Claus” spike this year as Christmas draws closer. Cryptocurrency markets rose around the Christmas holidays on eight out of 10 occasions between 2014 and 2023. Hopes of a Santa rally this year have been dashed by the recent drop in the price of Bitcoin, and a reduction in institutional investment inflow has further tempered the enthusiasm.
Santa Claus Rally Expectations
Crypto prices surge after a “Santa Claus” bounce in the past five trading days and the first two of next year. Following its decline, cryptocurrency speculators fear Santa Claus rallies. Post-Christmas Crypto markets rose 2014–2023. Crypto markets fell 12.12% before Christmas during the 2017 ICO bubble, three times in a decade. Institutional interest may boost BTC after Christmas. Crypto assets climbed this week, excluding Bitcoin. Daily chart optimism may help coins after Christmas or in the first two trading days 2025.
Bitcoin Q4 Struggles
The December 25 Bitcoin quarterly returns show over 50% gains in Q4 2024 and 2023. Q4 BTC gains were above 480%, 215%, and 168% for the 2020, 2017, and 2013 bull runs. Bitcoin has struggled this quarter, and 2025’s first two trading days show little growth. Bitcoin Spot ETF capital withdrawals suggest institutional BTC interest is diminishing. Due to its Q4 performance below the median of 54.80%, Bitcoin is unlikely to revisit its all-time high before year’s end.
Altcoin Season Index Analysis
The altcoin season index aids in assessing the top 50 altcoins’ performance over ninety days. On a scale of 0 to 100, the index’s value of 49 indicates that compared to Bitcoin’s yield for holders during the same period, the price performance of the top 50 altcoins is trailing behind. Although 49 demonstrates that the altcoin season has not yet begun, it does suggest that almost 50% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last ninety days.
Bitcoin and Crypto Governance
Trump’s third crypto initiative did not boost Bitcoin, which included personnel like Paul Atkins and Steven Miran. Despite this, South Korea, which accounted for 9% of Bitcoin transactions in 2021, is still a significant player. With substantial investments in Ethereum and Bitcoin, Asian businesses like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet still embrace the cryptocurrency. While tax deferrals in South Korea may help the market by 2027, changes in U.S. Crypto governance have led to Bitcoin’s recent drop.
BTC Trading Levels
In BTC derivatives, Binance, OKX, and Deribit should rise. Long/short ratios of the exchange platform reached 1, and B TC’sC open interest increased, indicating trader demand. Bulls sold $38 million in Bitcoin shorts in 24 hours. Important holiday levels. Selling may push BTC under $81,500, the weekly imbalance zone’s bottom, if a daily candlestick close below $89,376 destroys important supports. Cryptoliquidations and crashes may result. A t $100,000, resistance. If the daily candlestick closes above the $108k target record, BTC may extend gains and retest its all-time height to determine the cycle peak.
Also Read: Bitcoin Hits $94K as VIRTUAL and ZEC See Strong Growth
In Summary
Cryptocurrency prospects are ambiguous in 2024. Bitcoin’s slump and decreasing institutional interest have lowered “Santa Claus” bounce hopes for Christmas. The market is cautious, yet certain cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. After its disappointing Q4 performance, analysts doubt Bitcoin will reach its all-time high before year’s end. The Crypto effect from South Korea and governance changes, such as Trump’s economic advisor appointments, complicate matters. Holiday fluctuations may affect bitcoin prices, so traders should observe crucial levels.
