Ethereum Worst Week Since March cryptocurrency by market cap, has just endured its steepest weekly drop since March 2025. The drama has raised alarm bells among investors, traders, and analysts: is this sharp tumble signalling the end of Ethereum’s bull run — or is it merely a painful correction in a still-alive uptrend? In this article, we explore the causes, technical implications, macro risks, and future scenarios for Ethereum. We’ll break down whether the ETH bull run is over — or simply hitting turbulence.
What Happened: Ethereum’s Worst Week Since March
In early November 2025, Ethereum plunged nearly 21.75 % in a single week — its worst weekly performance since March. That drop pushed ETH toward key support levels near $3,000–$3,300, before stabilising.
Multiple factors contributed to the crash: a tech sell-off, macroeconomic uncertainty, sharp liquidations in derivative markets, and risk-off sentiment rippling across crypto and traditional markets.
Because of the magnitude, many are asking: has Ethereum’s bull run died, or is it simply taking a breather? To answer that, we need to dig into technicals, on-chain signals, macro drivers, and investor psychology.
Technical Analysis: Has Key Support Broken?
Support Levels Tested
During the sell-off, Ethereum retraced down to near its 200-3D Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — around $3,067, which has historically acted as a pivot for past corrections. That suggests ETH is not yet in a total collapse; rather, it’s testing a historically important support zone.
However, ETH is trading below its 50-3D EMA (near the $3,700–$3,800 zone), which now becomes resistance if the price were to rebound.
Additionally, Ethereum recently dipped below its 111-day moving average (DMA) — an on-chain metric tied to the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, often used to time cycle peaks.
Indicators & Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, which could imply that the sellers are exhausted, opening room for a short-term bounce.
Yet, the fact that critical moving averages have broken (or are being tested) means volatility ahead may remain high. Stirring confidence for many will require reclaiming higher technical thresholds.
Historical Patterns & Fractals
Some analysts have pointed out that Ethereum’s current structure mirrors a 2020-style V-bottom fractal — where a sharp correction preceded a much bigger rebound. If that pattern holds, then the current breakdown may mark the late stage of a cooling phase before another impulse leg upward.
In short,t: the technical picture is mixed. On one hand, support is being tested; on the other hand, some on-chain signals and fractal analogies suggest there is still room for recovery — not necessarily collapse.
Macro & Market Drivers Behind the Drop
Global Risk Sentiment & Tech Sell-Off
The Ethereum crash didn’t happen in isolation. It came amid broader risk-off sentiment, especially in AI-driven tech stocks that had previously been fueling liquidity into crypto.
When equity markets stumble, especially growth and tech sectors, capital may flow out of risky assets (including altcoins) — increasing volatility in Ethereum.
U.S. Monetary Policy & Interest Rates
Comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve chair about the uncertain timeline for rate cuts have strained investor confidence in risk assets.
Higher yields or the risk of prolonged restrictive monetary policy tend to weigh on speculative sectors like crypto.
Liquidations & ETF Outflows
Several reports highlight aggressive long-position liquidations in ETH derivatives markets. For example, over $1 billion in long trades have been wiped out in recent days.
Additionally, large outflows from crypto-adjacent ETFs (such as Ethereum-based investment products) have increased selling pressure.
Regulatory / Geopolitical Noise
Though not always central to immediate drops, regulatory uncertainty (e.g. global tariff movements, political risk) has added to the backdrop of investor caution.
Combined, these macro factors have amplified the technical breakdown, turning a correction into a deep drawdown.
Sentiment & On-Chain Signals
Investor Psychology
When traders see a drop of 20%+ in a week, fear tends to cascade. Many retail traders may dump positions, and even some institutional holders may reduce positions to manage risk. That intensifies downward momentum.
However, some “whale” wallets appear to be buying dips — which suggests that at least some long-term holders are treating the crash as an opportunity.
Staking & Supply Constraints
Despite the sell-off, certain structural positives remain for Ethereum. For instance, staking levels have reached record highs in some data, locking away large portions of the circulating supply.
Reduced liquid supply strengthens the case for a possible rebound once risk-off sentiment eases.
On-Chain Indicators & Cycle Analytics
As noted earlier, ETH breaching the 111-day moving average tied to the Pi Cycle Top may signal that Ethereum is entering a cooling period. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the bull run is over — many cycle analysts view similar breaks as part of a re-accumulation phase before the next leg higher.
Investors watching on-chain metrics (like gas activity, staking trends, wallet accumulation) may use the current weakness to gauge accumulation zones rather than capitulation.
Possible Scenarios for Ethereum’s Future
Based on the technical, macro, and sentiment analysis above, we can sketch out a few plausible scenarios for what happens next to Ethereum’s bull run.
Scenario 1: Temporary Pause & Bounce
In this scenario, ETH uses its tested support around $3,000-$3,100 as a base. Sellers exhaust here, RSI recovers, and capital rotation (from overheated dollar / safe assets) flows back into crypto. Ethereum reclaims its 50-3D EMA ($3,700–$3,800) and resumes an upward trajectory. In that case, the bull run is not over — simply paused.
Scenario 2: Extended Correction / Sideways Consolidation
Alternatively, the market may enter a deeper consolidation. Rather than resuming the uptrend immediately, ETH might trade sideways between, say, $2,800 and $4,000 for several weeks or months. During this period, accumulation could continue. The bull run would not be dead — but delayed.
Scenario 3: Bearish Breakout Below Key Support
In the most pessimistic view, if ETH breaks below its ~$3,000 support decisively (for example, due to further macro shocks, liquidity crunch, or regulatory shock), then it might trigger deeper losses — possibly toward $2,500–$2,800. That level might test long-term sentiment and could temporarily “pause” or even reverse the current bullish cycle.
Scenario 4: Macro Shock Triggering Bear Market Transition
Less likely but still possible: a large macro shock (e.g. policy error, banking crisis, regulatory crackdown) triggers a shift in investor behaviour — from speculative to capital-preservation. Under that scenario, what seemed like a bull run could erode — and ETH could underperform for months.
Is This the End of the ETH Bull Run?
Putting all the evidence together, the weight of data suggests that this is not (yet) the end of the Ethereum bull run — but it may be a turning point. The bull run is under pressure, technicals are strained, and investor sentiment is rattled.
HoweverKeyey support has held so far (or at least is being tested rather than blown through),
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On-chain and staking metrics show that structural strength remains,
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macro signals (e.g. overbought USD index, rate-cut expectations) could work in ETH’s favour if sentiment stabilises,
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Historical fractals and cycle-based analysis suggest we may merely be entering a deeper correction rather than a reversal.
Therefore, the more reasonable conclusion is that the ETH bull run is on pause, not dead. The next few weeks or months may determine whether bulls reclaim control — or whether the cycle has topped.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s worst week since March 2025 has reignited fear in the crypto community. The depth of the drawdown and the speed with which it unfolded have raised legitimate questions about the strength and sustainability of the bull run. But while the technical damage is real, and macro risks are significant, there is still room for recovery.
If Ethereum can hold critical supports, re-establish momentum, and benefit from favourable macro rotation, the bull run may resume. On the other hand, failure to recapture key levels could lead to extended consolidation or even deeper correction.
For now, prudent investors should monitor support levels, watch for liquidation cascades, follow on-chain accumulation, and assess macro developments closely. The bull run may not be over — but it is under stress.
FAQs
Q: Can Ethereum recover from this drop quickly?
Yes — if buyers resume accumulation and macro conditions ease, ETH could bounce back toward $3,700–$3,800. But the speed of recovery depends on risk appetite, liquidity flows, and the absence of additional shocks.
Q: What support levels should ETH holders watch?
Key support zones include the ~$3,000–$3,100 area (200-3D EMA), as well as historical liquidity zones around $2,800. Resistance to reclaim lies near $3,700–$3,800 (50-3D EMA zone).
Q: Does this drop mean Ethereum is entering a bear market?
Not necessarily. While the correction is steep, current data suggests a deep pullback rather than an outright trend reversal. A bear market would require sustained broken support, regulatory collapse, or macro crisis.
Q: How do on-chain metrics influence future outlook?
Metrics such as staking participation, wallet accumulation, network activity, and cycle-based indicators (e.g. Pi Cycle) can provide leading signals of whether this correction is accumulation-driven or capitulation-driven.
Q: What macro events could derail or restore confidence in Ethereum?
Potential catalysts include changes in U.S. monetary policy (rate cut timing), regulatory announcements (e.g. crypto rules), geopolitical/economic shocks, and significant ETF inflows or outflows. Any of these could tip the balance toward renewed rally — or further correction.
